Global Energy Review 2020: The impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions

This IEA report charts a possible path for energy use and CO2 emissions in 2020 and also provides the real-time analysis of energy use developments to date in 2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Beyond the immediate impact on health, the current crisis has major implications for global economies, energy use and CO₂ emissions. Countries in full lockdown are experiencing an average 25% decline in energy demand per week and countries in partial lockdown an average 18% decline.

The report estimates the impact of Covid‑19 on energy demand in 2020 to be more than seven times larger than the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on global energy demand. It also hgihlights the following fuel and energy use impacts:

• Oil demand could drop by 9%, or 9 mb/d on average across the year, returning oil consumption to 2012 levels.
• Coal demand could decline by 8%, in large part because electricity demand will be nearly 5% lower over the course of the year. The recovery of coal demand for industry and electricity generation in China could offset larger declines elsewhere.
• Gas demand could fall much further across the full year than in the first quarter, with reduced demand in power and industry applications.
• Nuclear power demand would also fall in response to lower electricity demand.
• Renewables demand is expected to increase because of low operating costs and preferential access to many power systems. Recent growth in capacity, some new projects coming online in 2020, would also boost output.

Global CO₂ emissions are expected to decline by 8%, or almost 2.6 gigatonnes (Gt), to levels of 10 years ago. Such a year-on-year reduction would be the largest ever, six times larger than the previous record reduction of 0.4 Gt in 2009 – caused by the global financial crisis – and twice as large as the combined total of all previous reductions since the end of World War II. As after previous crises, however, the rebound in emissions may be larger than the decline, unless the wave of investment to restart the economy is dedicated to cleaner and more resilient energy infrastructure.